Sukhothai FC 0-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Sukhothai FC welcome Khon Kaen United to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 4.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Khon Kaen United's 0.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.92 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.656 / defence 1.340 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.866 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.166. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Sukhothai FC games / 32 Khon Kaen United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 47%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Khon Kaen United 2.13. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khon Kaen United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.92 / Khon Kaen United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.656 / def 1.340 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.866 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Khon Kaen United xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 26% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 4.50 | L5 L-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.66x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
26%
3.91
28%
3.61
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.35
Khon Kaen United xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
15.11
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.35 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 0.00 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 4.50 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 1, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Sukhothai FC 1-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 0% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 0% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United finished level at 0-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.92 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.35 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.34 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 47%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 100%, Khon Kaen United 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 0.00 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC conceded 0 against a 4.50 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.