Rayong FC 2-4 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rayong FC host Ratchaburi at Rayong Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Rayong Provincial Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Rayong FC) versus 1.90 (Ratchaburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–4 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 70% and Ratchaburi 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 58% | Ratchaburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.30 xG and Ratchaburi 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.956 / defence 0.852 | Ratchaburi attack 1.199 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.177. Data: 44 Rayong FC games / 43 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 31%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Ratchaburi 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 60% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 36% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Rayong FC 1.30 / Ratchaburi 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.956 / def 0.852 | Ratchaburi attack 1.199 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Ratchaburi xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 16 December 2025 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Rayong FC 2 - 4 Ratchaburi.
Where is Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 36% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rayong FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (2 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Rayong FC and Ratchaburi in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rayong FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
36%
2.79
33%
3.03
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.20
Ratchaburi xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.20 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 13W 14D 16L from 43 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 11L across 43 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 9W 7D 5L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 11W 3D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.98 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.62 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Rayong FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayong FC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
0
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Ratchaburi?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 0, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi 6-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 71%, Ratchaburi at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rayong FC) and 62% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rayong FC's games and 62% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Rayong FC's matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Rayong FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 2-4 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.30 xG and Ratchaburi 1.20 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Ratchaburi attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 36% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 31%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 58%, Ratchaburi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.