Rayong FC 5-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rayong FC face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rayong Provincial Stadium plays host to Rayong FC versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 18 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rayong FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Rayong Provincial Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Rayong FC 0W, Port FC 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Port FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 71% and Port FC 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 60% | Port FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.07 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.003 / defence 1.124 | Port FC attack 0.901 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.113. Port FC's defence strength of 0.686 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Rayong FC games / 46 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 33% | Draw 32% | Port FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Port FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 60% | Port FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 33% | Draw 32% | Port FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Rayong FC 1.07 / Port FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.003 / def 1.124 | Port FC attack 0.901 / def 0.686 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Port FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Port FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Port FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Rayong FC 5 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Rayong FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Port FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 33% chance of winning, Port FC a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rayong FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 1 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Rayong FC and Port FC in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayong FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.90x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
33%
3.06
32%
3.16
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.20
1.13
Port FC xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.13 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 13W 14D 18L from 45 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 12L across 45 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayong FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.76 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 13W 14D 18L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Port FC have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Port FC away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Port FC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 4-1 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Port FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Port FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rayong FC 5-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 71%, Port FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Rayong FC) and 38% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rayong FC's games and 43% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Rayong FC's recent games and 38% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Port FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rayong FC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Port FC 5-2 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.07 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Port FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.69, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 33% | Draw 32% | Port FC 36%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rayong FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, Port FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.