Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ayutthaya FC make the trip to Rayong Provincial Stadium to face Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rayong FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC at Rayong Provincial Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ayutthaya FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rayong FC against 0.90 for Ayutthaya FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rayong FC 0W, Ayutthaya FC 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rayong FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 74% and Ayutthaya FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 52% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.48 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.012 / defence 0.852 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Rayong FC games / 31 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 50% | Draw 28% | Ayutthaya FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Ayutthaya FC 4.55. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rayong FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayong FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rayong FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 50% | Draw 28% | Ayutthaya FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Rayong FC 1.48 / Ayutthaya FC 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.012 / def 0.852 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ayutthaya FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
Where is Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 50% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 1W.
What form are Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (1.01) and Ayutthaya FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (0.97x) against Rayong FC's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.63
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.39
0.91
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.91 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 10W 10D 11L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 9W 8D 14L from 31 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Rayong FC against 1.13 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rayong FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (8W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayong FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Rayong FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
1
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 0, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-0 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 67%, Ayutthaya FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rayong FC) and 47% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Rayong FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 53% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rayong FC's recent games and 47% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.