Ratchaburi 2-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Ratchaburi Stadium to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ratchaburi Stadium, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.60 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 2 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Sukhothai FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 49% | Sukhothai FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.78 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.136 / defence 0.920 | Sukhothai FC attack 1.028 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.114. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Ratchaburi games / 41 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 72% | Draw 18% | Sukhothai FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Sukhothai FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.78 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.84 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ratchaburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 72% | Draw 18% | Sukhothai FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 63% | xG Ratchaburi 2.78 / Sukhothai FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.136 / def 0.920 | Sukhothai FC attack 1.028 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (72%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sukhothai FC xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Ratchaburi 2 - 2 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 72% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.14) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.54
10%
9.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.84
1.05
Sukhothai FC xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
9.89
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
6%
16.15
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
1%
159.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.05 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 15W 9D 17L from 41 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 21L across 41 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.32 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 3W 4D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 6D 21L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.80 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 55%, Sukhothai FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Ratchaburi and 75% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Ratchaburi's games and 70% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ratchaburi's matches and 75% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC finished level at 2-2 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.78 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.05 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sukhothai FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Sukhothai FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.43, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 72% | Draw 18% | Sukhothai FC 10%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 49%, Sukhothai FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.32 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.