Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 3W 5D 2L at Dragon Solar Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.20 (Prachuap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Prachuap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 1 for Prachuap and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 5–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Prachuap trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Prachuap 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 30% | Prachuap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.11 xG and Prachuap 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.779 / defence 0.942 | Prachuap attack 1.087 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.174. Ratchaburi's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Ratchaburi games / 56 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 38%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Prachuap 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ratchaburi 60% | Prachuap 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ratchaburi 1.11 / Prachuap 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.779 / def 0.942 | Prachuap attack 1.087 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Prachuap xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 34% chance of winning, Prachuap a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): Ratchaburi 2W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.78x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.54
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Prachuap xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.20 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 18D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.05 PPG from 56 outings (15W 14D 27L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.34 PPG, Prachuap on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 12W 10D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (7W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.18 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 18D 19L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 15W 14D 27L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.64 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 57%, Prachuap 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ratchaburi) and 64% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ratchaburi's games and 61% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 64% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 27, as Ratchaburi and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.11 xG and Prachuap 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.78 / defence 0.94 against Prachuap attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 34% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 38%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 30%, Prachuap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.34 PPG, Prachuap 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.