Ratchaburi 1-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Police Tero at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Mitr Phol Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 0 for Police Tero and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 47% versus Police Tero 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 41% | Police Tero 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.20 xG and Police Tero 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.999 / defence 0.839 | Police Tero attack 0.870 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.122. Data: 34 Ratchaburi games / 32 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 45% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Police Tero 4.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 40% | Police Tero 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 45% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Ratchaburi 1.20 / Police Tero 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.999 / def 0.839 | Police Tero attack 0.870 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Police Tero xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Police Tero kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero part of?
Ratchaburi vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 45% chance of winning, Police Tero a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ratchaburi and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
Record (2 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 2 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Police Tero in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Police Tero (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.34
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.02
0.82
Police Tero xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
8%
13.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.82 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 9D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Police Tero sit at 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (8W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.41 PPG, Police Tero on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 8W 4D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Police Tero have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 12W 9D 11L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Police Tero away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.75 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Police Tero been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Police Tero in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Police Tero 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 44% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Police Tero in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 50% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 44% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Police Tero tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Police Tero share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Police Tero finished level at 1-1 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.20 xG and Police Tero 0.82 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Police Tero attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 45% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 41%, Police Tero 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Police Tero's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.41 PPG, Police Tero 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.