Ratchaburi 3-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ratchaburi face Chiangrai United.

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Fixture Analysis

Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 1 December 2023 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Ratchaburi have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.60 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Chiangrai United's (from Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ratchaburi have won 0, Chiangrai United 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Ratchaburi 0–0 Chiangrai United — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Ratchaburi trading profile (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Chiangrai United trading profile (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 52% and Chiangrai United 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 30% | Chiangrai United 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ratchaburi surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Chiangrai United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.73 xG and Chiangrai United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.164 / defence 1.003 | Chiangrai United attack 0.909 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.263. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 41 games and Chiangrai United's last 40.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.93 | Chiangrai United 4.06. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 60% (last 10 away games).

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