Rasi Salai United 1-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rasi Salai United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Rasi Salai United welcome Port FC to Sisaket Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rasi Salai United 1.18 xG and Port FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.141 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 0 Rasi Salai United games / 30 Port FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 32% | Draw 33% | Port FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Rasi Salai United 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Port FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rasi Salai United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sisaket Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 32% | Draw 33% | Port FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Rasi Salai United 1.18 / Port FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.141 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Port FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Rasi Salai United xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Port FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rasi Salai United vs Port FC kick off?
Rasi Salai United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rasi Salai United vs Port FC?
Rasi Salai United 1 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Rasi Salai United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rasi Salai United vs Port FC part of?
Rasi Salai United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rasi Salai United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Rasi Salai United a 32% chance of winning, Port FC a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rasi Salai United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rasi Salai United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rasi Salai United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rasi Salai United and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rasi Salai United and Port FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rasi Salai United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Rasi Salai United's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
32%
3.16
33%
3.00
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Rasi Salai United xG
Total xG
2.44
1.25
Port FC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rasi Salai United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rasi Salai United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.25 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Rasi Salai United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rasi Salai United
Pre-Season
Port FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Rasi Salai United
0
Draws
1
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rasi Salai United and Port FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Rasi Salai United have won 0, Port FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rasi Salai United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Rasi Salai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Rasi Salai United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rasi Salai United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Rasi Salai United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Rasi Salai United 1-2 at Sisaket Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rasi Salai United 1.18 xG and Port FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rasi Salai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Port FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rasi Salai United 32% | Draw 33% | Port FC 35%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.