Prachuap 0-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Muangthong United (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Muangthong United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Muangthong United travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Muangthong United are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 0, Muangthong United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 0–5 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 62% and Muangthong United 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 55% | Muangthong United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.34 xG and Muangthong United 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.953 / defence 1.113 | Muangthong United attack 1.351 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.125. Muangthong United have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Prachuap games / 53 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 29% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 44%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Muangthong United 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 80% | Muangthong United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 29% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Prachuap 1.34 / Muangthong United 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.953 / def 1.113 | Muangthong United attack 1.351 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Muangthong United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Muangthong United kick off?
Prachuap vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Prachuap 0 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Prachuap vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Muangthong United part of?
Prachuap vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 29% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Prachuap and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Muangthong United?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Muangthong United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Muangthong United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.95) and Muangthong United's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.78
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.04
1.69
Muangthong United xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.69 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap's recent record stands at 13W 14D 26L from 53 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 13L across 53 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Muangthong United by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 7W 8D 11L from 26 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 7W 9D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.66 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 14D 26L in their last 53 games (1.00 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 22W 18D 13L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Muangthong United away?
Muangthong United's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.12 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 62%, Muangthong United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Prachuap) and 42% (Muangthong United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Prachuap's games and 58% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Prachuap's recent games and 42% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Prachuap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Prachuap 0-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.34 xG and Muangthong United 1.69 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Prachuap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Muangthong United attack 1.35 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 29% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 44%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 55%, Muangthong United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Muangthong United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.