Prachuap 0-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Khon Kaen United travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 0W 4D 3L this season (7 games, 0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Khon Kaen United are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 0, Khon Kaen United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Khon Kaen United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Khon Kaen United trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 53% versus Khon Kaen United 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 47% | Khon Kaen United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.13 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.722 / defence 1.203 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.888 / defence 1.486. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.088. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.486 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Prachuap games / 15 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 35% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 37%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Khon Kaen United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 57% | Khon Kaen United 43%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 35% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.13 / Khon Kaen United 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.722 / def 1.203 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.888 / def 1.486 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Khon Kaen United xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Prachuap 0 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 35% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Khon Kaen United?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Khon Kaen United 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Khon Kaen United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.72x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.52
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.29
1.16
Khon Kaen United xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.16 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 0.73 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Prachuap's home form reads 0W 4D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.93 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Khon Kaen United's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.57 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Prachuap
1
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Khon Kaen United 1-4 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Khon Kaen United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 57%, Khon Kaen United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Prachuap) and 57% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 43% of games; Khon Kaen United in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Prachuap's recent matches and 43% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Prachuap's recent games and 57% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khon Kaen United edge out Prachuap 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Prachuap 0-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.13 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Prachuap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.89 / defence 1.49, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 35% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 37%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 47%, Khon Kaen United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.73 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.