Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Prachuap and Chiangrai United meet at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Prachuap, 1.40 for Chiangrai United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Prachuap 4W, Chiangrai United 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 51% versus Chiangrai United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 47% | Chiangrai United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.24 xG and Chiangrai United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.994 / defence 0.982 | Chiangrai United attack 1.040 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.192. Data: 46 Prachuap games / 45 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 33%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Chiangrai United 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Chiangrai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Prachuap 1.24 / Chiangrai United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.994 / def 0.982 | Chiangrai United attack 1.040 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Chiangrai United xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Prachuap 3 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United part of?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 34% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Prachuap and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Record (9 meetings): Prachuap 4W | Draws 2 | Chiangrai United 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.99x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.04x) against Prachuap's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
34%
2.90
32%
3.09
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.46
1.22
Chiangrai United xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.22 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 15D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (16W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Prachuap against 1.29 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 10W 9D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chiangrai United away?
Prachuap's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.77 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Chiangrai United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Prachuap) and 46% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Prachuap's games and 64% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Prachuap's recent games and 46% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Chiangrai United 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 3-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.24 xG and Chiangrai United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Chiangrai United attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 34% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 33%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 47%, Chiangrai United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.40 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.