Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 4W 4D 2L at Sam Ao Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Prachuap's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Buriram United trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 51% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 49% | Buriram United 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.40 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.012 / defence 1.027 | Buriram United attack 1.431 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.225. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Prachuap games / 45 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 45%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 2.22. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Prachuap 1.40 / Buriram United 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.012 / def 1.027 | Buriram United attack 1.431 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Buriram United xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 28% chance of winning, Buriram United a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (9 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 8W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.01) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
28%
3.53
26%
3.80
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.20
1.80
Buriram United xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.37
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.80 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 14D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.44 PPG from 45 outings (35W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.32 points per game from 22 outings (16W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.89 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 16W 14D 15L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 35W 5D 5L in their last 45 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.86 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Buriram United in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 46%, Buriram United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Prachuap and 77% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Buriram United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Prachuap's recent matches and 64% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Prachuap's matches and 77% of Buriram United's.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Buriram United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Buriram United finished level at 1-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.40 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Buriram United attack 1.43 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 28% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 45%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 49%, Buriram United 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.