Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ayutthaya FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Prachuap's 1.70 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ayutthaya FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Prachuap, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Prachuap — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 47% versus Ayutthaya FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 37% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.56 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.027 / defence 0.942 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 30 Ayutthaya FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 31% | Ayutthaya FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Ayutthaya FC 5.26. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Ayutthaya FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Dec 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 31% | Ayutthaya FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Prachuap 1.56 / Ayutthaya FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.027 / def 0.942 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.000 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ayutthaya FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 26 December 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 50% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.00x) against Prachuap's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.23
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.46
0.90
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.90 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap's recent record stands at 11W 11D 8L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 14L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. Ayutthaya FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Prachuap against 1.07 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 8W 5D 1L from 14 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.07 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.07 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-3 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 36%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Prachuap and 43% for Ayutthaya FC.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Prachuap's recent matches and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Prachuap's recent games and 43% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.