Port FC 0-2 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Pattaya United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Pattaya United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattaya United have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pattaya United's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Port FC's 30% rate and Pattaya United's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Port FC, 0 for Pattaya United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Pattaya United in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 50% versus Pattaya United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 46% | Pattaya United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.17 xG and Pattaya United 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.972 / defence 1.076 | Pattaya United attack 0.505 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.069. Pattaya United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Port FC games / 22 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 50% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 18%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Pattaya United 5.56. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Pattaya United's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 30% | Pattaya United 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 50% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG Port FC 1.17 / Pattaya United 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.972 / def 1.076 | Pattaya United attack 0.505 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Port FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Pattaya United xG
31%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Pattaya United kick off?
Port FC vs Pattaya United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Pattaya United?
Port FC 0 - 2 Pattaya United.
Where is Port FC vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Pattaya United part of?
Port FC vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 50% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Port FC and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Pattaya United?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 1 | Pattaya United 0W.
What form are Port FC and Pattaya United in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Pattaya United (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Pattaya United's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pattaya United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.8%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.12
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Port FC xG
Total xG
1.75
0.58
Pattaya United xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Port FC and 0.58 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 9W 5D 8L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pattaya United's form line: 3W 9D 10L from 22 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattaya United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Port FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
On the road, Pattaya United have gone 1W 3D 7L from 11 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 0.82 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Pattaya United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 3W 9D 10L in their last 22 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Pattaya United away?
Port FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Pattaya United away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Port FC or Pattaya United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Pattaya United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Pattaya United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 0, Pattaya United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Port FC 0-2 Pattaya United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Pattaya United?
Pattaya United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pattaya United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Port FC 36% BTTS, Pattaya United 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Port FC and 18% for Pattaya United.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Pattaya United in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Pattaya United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Port FC's recent matches and 27% of Pattaya United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Port FC's recent games and 18% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pattaya United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pattaya United beat Port FC 0-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.17 xG and Pattaya United 0.58 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pattaya United outscored their 0.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Pattaya United attack 0.51 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 50% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 18%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Pattaya United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 46%, Pattaya United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Pattaya United's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Pattaya United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pattaya United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.