Port FC 0-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.62 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.040 / defence 0.961 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.099. Data: 30 Port FC games / 0 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Lamphun Warrior 4.76. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 54% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Port FC 1.62 / Lamphun Warrior 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.040 / def 0.961 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Port FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lamphun Warrior xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC 0 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 54% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.04
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.52
0.90
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
4%
24.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Port FC and 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Pre-Season
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Port FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 0-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.62 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.90 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 54% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 21%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.