Port FC vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Chiangrai United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Port FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 9W 1D 0L at PAT Stadium — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Port FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Chiangrai United (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Port FC 4W, Chiangrai United 2W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 47% versus Chiangrai United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 53% | Chiangrai United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.13 xG and Chiangrai United 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.395 / defence 0.899 | Chiangrai United attack 0.811 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Port FC games / 36 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 22% | Chiangrai United 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Chiangrai United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 22% | Chiangrai United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Port FC 2.13 / Chiangrai United 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.395 / def 0.899 | Chiangrai United attack 0.811 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Port FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Chiangrai United xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Port FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 61% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Port FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (10 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 4 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in?
Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.40) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.81x) against Port FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.61
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.19
1.06
Chiangrai United xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
48.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Port FC and 1.06 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 36 games, going 23W 6D 7L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (10W 14D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 14W 4D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.08 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (2W 11D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 61%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 games (2.08 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Port FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Chiangrai United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Port FC, 83% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Port FC) and 39% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Port FC's games and 83% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Port FC's recent games and 39% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.