Port FC 0-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 outings — a 1.83 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.83 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United — All Games: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.17 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 0.67. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.83 PPG (Port FC) versus 2.17 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 50% versus Buriram United 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 33% | Buriram United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.31 xG and Buriram United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.109 / defence 1.051 | Buriram United attack 0.816 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.299. Data: 6 Port FC games / 6 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 38% | Draw 35% | Buriram United 28%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Buriram United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 33% | Buriram United 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 38% | Draw 35% | Buriram United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Port FC 1.31 / Buriram United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.109 / def 1.051 | Buriram United attack 0.816 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Buriram United xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Port FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Port FC 0 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Port FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Buriram United part of?
Port FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 38% chance of winning, Buriram United a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Port FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.11) and Buriram United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
38%
2.67
35%
2.90
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.11
Buriram United xG
2.67
38%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Port FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Port FC and 1.11 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 3W 2D 1L from 6 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 1L across 6 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.83 PPG, Buriram United on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 1.83 scored and 0.67 conceded. Buriram United's attacking output running into Port FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Have Port FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 50%, Buriram United 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Port FC) and 50% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Buriram United in 50%; Buriram United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port FC's recent matches and 33% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Port FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Port FC 0-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.31 xG and Buriram United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Buriram United attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 38% | Draw 35% | Buriram United 28%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 33%, Buriram United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.83 PPG, Buriram United 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Buriram United win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.