Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 40%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Ayutthaya FC meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Port FC's favour (2.50 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Port FC, 0 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 4–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 47% versus Ayutthaya FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 53% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.43 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.395 / defence 0.899 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ayutthaya FC's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Port FC games / 37 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 34% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Ayutthaya FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Ayutthaya FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 34% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Port FC 1.43 / Ayutthaya FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.395 / def 0.899 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Ayutthaya FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 34% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Port FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.40x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.21x) against Port FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
34%
2.97
26%
3.85
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.58
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.45
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Port FC and 1.58 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 23W 6D 7L from 36 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 15L across 36 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ayutthaya FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 14W 4D 0L from 18 games — 2.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.08 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 9W 5D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 games (2.08 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port FC
0
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 50%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Port FC) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port FC's recent matches and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Port FC's matches and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's.
Do Port FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.