Police Tero 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Police Tero and Prachuap meet at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Boonyachinda Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Boonyachinda Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Police Tero, 0.90 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Police Tero 1W, Prachuap 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 4–2 with Police Tero winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Police Tero — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 55% versus Prachuap 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 45% | Prachuap 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.53 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.845 / defence 0.806 | Prachuap attack 1.056 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.137. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Police Tero games / 51 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 49% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 23%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Prachuap 4.35. Police Tero hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Police Tero 40% | Prachuap 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 49% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Police Tero 1.53 / Prachuap 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.845 / def 0.806 | Prachuap attack 1.056 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Prachuap xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Prachuap kick off?
Police Tero vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Police Tero 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Police Tero vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Prachuap part of?
Police Tero vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 49% chance of winning, Prachuap a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Police Tero and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Prachuap in?
Police Tero (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 0.84x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.06x) against Police Tero's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.59
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Prachuap xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
20.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Police Tero and 0.97 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 20D 16L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.00 PPG from 51 outings (13W 12D 26L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Police Tero against 1.00 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 10W 10D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (6W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.12 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 15W 20D 16L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 13W 12D 26L in their last 51 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Prachuap away?
Police Tero's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.60 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
4
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Prachuap have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Prachuap 2-0 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 52%, Prachuap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Police Tero) and 68% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Prachuap in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Police Tero's games and 64% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Police Tero's recent games and 68% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Prachuap tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.53 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.84 / defence 0.81 against Prachuap attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 49% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 23%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 45%, Prachuap 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.27 PPG, Prachuap 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.