Police Tero 0-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Police Tero welcome Chonburi FC to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Police Tero — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Boonyachinda Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chonburi FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chonburi FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Police Tero) versus 0.90 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Police Tero register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Police Tero, 0 for Chonburi FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Police Tero winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 53% and Chonburi FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 37% | Chonburi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.43 xG and Chonburi FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.953 / defence 1.048 | Chonburi FC attack 1.060 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.063. Data: 31 Police Tero games / 30 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Police Tero 43% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 60% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 43% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Police Tero 1.43 / Chonburi FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.953 / def 1.048 | Chonburi FC attack 1.060 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Chonburi FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Police Tero 0 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Chonburi FC part of?
Police Tero vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 43% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Police Tero and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Police Tero 2W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Chonburi FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 0.95x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.83
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.61
1.18
Chonburi FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.18 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Police Tero have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. Chonburi FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.20 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Police Tero have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (5W 7D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Chonburi FC away?
Police Tero's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.47 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Chonburi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Police Tero's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Police Tero
0
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2024, when Chonburi FC 4-2 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 60%, Chonburi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Police Tero) and 67% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Police Tero's games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Police Tero's recent games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Police Tero 0-2 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.43 xG and Chonburi FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Chonburi FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 43% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 31%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Chonburi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 37%, Chonburi FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.20 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.