Police Tero 2-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Police Tero welcome Chonburi FC to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 5 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Police Tero — All Games: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Chonburi FC's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Police Tero's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Police Tero register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 80% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Police Tero 60% and Chonburi FC 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 40% | Chonburi FC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.26 xG and Chonburi FC 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.905 / defence 1.093 | Chonburi FC attack 1.534 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.387. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.534 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Police Tero games / 5 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 18% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Chonburi FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 60% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 18% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Police Tero 1.26 / Chonburi FC 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.905 / def 1.093 | Chonburi FC attack 1.534 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Chonburi FC xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 5 October 2021 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Police Tero 2 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Chonburi FC part of?
Police Tero vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 18% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Police Tero and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Chonburi FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 0.91x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 2.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
18%
5.53
22%
4.51
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.58
2.33
Chonburi FC xG
5.53
18%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
10%
10.24
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
2%
56.62
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Police Tero and 2.33 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Police Tero have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Police Tero.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 3.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Chonburi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Police Tero's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Police Tero
0
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2024, when Chonburi FC 4-2 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Police Tero at 60%, Chonburi FC at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Police Tero and 80% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Police Tero have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Police Tero's games and 80% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Police Tero's matches and 80% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Police Tero and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Chonburi FC 2-0 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.26 xG and Chonburi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Chonburi FC attack 1.53 / defence 1.16, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 18% | Draw 22% | Chonburi FC 60%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Police Tero win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 40%, Chonburi FC 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.40. Form was overturned, with Police Tero winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Police Tero scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC managed 0 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.