Pattaya United 1-2 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattaya United vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pattaya United host Suphanburi at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattaya United have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pattaya United's home record at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pattaya United are significantly better at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suphanburi — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Suphanburi have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pattaya United at 0.70 PPG versus Suphanburi's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Pattaya United in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Suphanburi in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattaya United 62% and Suphanburi 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattaya United 54% | Suphanburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 1.24 xG and Suphanburi 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 1.028 / defence 1.225 | Suphanburi attack 0.648 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.168. Data: 13 Pattaya United games / 13 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 43% | Draw 29% | Suphanburi 28%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Suphanburi 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pattaya United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pattaya United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pattaya United 80% | Suphanburi 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 43% | Draw 29% | Suphanburi 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Pattaya United 1.24 / Suphanburi 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 1.028 / def 1.225 | Suphanburi attack 0.648 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Suphanburi xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs Suphanburi kick off?
Pattaya United vs Suphanburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs Suphanburi?
Pattaya United 1 - 2 Suphanburi.
Where is Pattaya United vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs Suphanburi part of?
Pattaya United vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 43% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pattaya United and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattaya United and Suphanburi in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pattaya United's attack at 1.03x the league average against Suphanburi's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Pattaya United's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.46
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
2.17
0.93
Suphanburi xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pattaya United and 0.93 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Pattaya United have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 5D 5L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suphanburi's form line: 1W 4D 8L from 13 games, 0.54 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pattaya United are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suphanburi.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pattaya United have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Pattaya United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Suphanburi have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Suphanburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pattaya United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattaya United are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 0.92 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Suphanburi in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Blended
Suphanburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattaya United at home or Suphanburi away?
Pattaya United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattaya United at home: 1.60 PPG; Suphanburi away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pattaya United
0
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 1, Suphanburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Suphanburi 1-2 Pattaya United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pattaya United tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pattaya United at 80%, Suphanburi at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Pattaya United and 60% for Suphanburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suphanburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pattaya United's games and 60% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Pattaya United's matches and 60% of Suphanburi's.
Do Pattaya United and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suphanburi defy the odds to beat Pattaya United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suphanburi beat Pattaya United 1-2 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 1.24 xG and Suphanburi 0.93 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Suphanburi outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against Suphanburi attack 0.65 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 43% | Draw 29% | Suphanburi 28%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Suphanburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 54%, Suphanburi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Suphanburi's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pattaya United arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.54. Form was overturned, with Suphanburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suphanburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.