Pattaya United 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattaya United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Port FC travel to Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium to take on Pattaya United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattaya United stand at 2W 3D 2L from 7 Thai League 1 matches — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pattaya United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pattaya United 1.29 PPG, Port FC 1.57 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pattaya United register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Port FC in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Pattaya United trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Port FC trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattaya United 71% versus Port FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattaya United 57% | Port FC 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 1.074 / defence 1.322 | Port FC attack 0.869 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.314. Data: 7 Pattaya United games / 7 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 27% | Draw 32% | Port FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Port FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Pattaya United 71% | Port FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 27% | Draw 32% | Port FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Pattaya United 1.22 / Port FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 1.074 / def 1.322 | Port FC attack 0.869 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Port FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs Port FC kick off?
Pattaya United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs Port FC?
Pattaya United 2 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Pattaya United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs Port FC part of?
Pattaya United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 27% chance of winning, Port FC a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pattaya United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattaya United and Port FC in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Port FC (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pattaya United's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Pattaya United's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
27%
3.64
32%
3.14
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
2.73
1.51
Port FC xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.46
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Pattaya United and 1.51 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pattaya United's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattaya United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 2L across 7 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pattaya United on 1.29 PPG, Port FC on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattaya United are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Port FC have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Have Pattaya United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattaya United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Port FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pattaya United
1
Draws
0
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 1, Port FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Port FC 0-2 Pattaya United.
Who has won more matches between Pattaya United and Port FC?
Pattaya United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattaya United 71%, Port FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Pattaya United) and 29% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pattaya United's games and 43% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Pattaya United's recent games and 29% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattaya United and Port FC tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Port FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pattaya United and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Pattaya United and Port FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 1.07 / defence 1.32 against Port FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 27% | Draw 32% | Port FC 41%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 57%, Port FC 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pattaya United 1.29 PPG, Port FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.