Pattaya United 0-3 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pattaya United host BG Pathum United at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 March 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pattaya United — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pattaya United have posted 1W 6D 3L at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BG Pathum United stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BG Pathum United are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pattaya United have won 0, BG Pathum United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with BG Pathum United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pattaya United trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BG Pathum United trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattaya United 50% versus BG Pathum United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pattaya United 38% | BG Pathum United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 0.828 / defence 1.128 | BG Pathum United attack 0.959 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 0.952 / away 1.092. BG Pathum United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Pattaya United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Pattaya United games / 24 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 28% | Draw 31% | BG Pathum United 40%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | BG Pathum United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pattaya United 70% | BG Pathum United 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 28% | Draw 31% | BG Pathum United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Pattaya United 0.95 / BG Pathum United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 0.828 / def 1.128 | BG Pathum United attack 0.959 / def 1.208 | league avg home 0.952 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 9 March 2022 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United?
Pattaya United 0 - 3 BG Pathum United.
Where is Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United part of?
Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 28% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pattaya United and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Pattaya United 0W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Pattaya United and BG Pathum United in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pattaya United's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Pattaya United's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
28%
3.51
31%
3.18
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
2.13
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pattaya United and 1.18 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Pattaya United have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 4W 10D 10L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 11W 9D 4L from 24 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-D. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattaya United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pattaya United have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 7D 2L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattaya United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.33 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 4W 10D 10L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 11W 9D 4L in their last 24 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattaya United at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattaya United at home: 1.09 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Pattaya United or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattaya United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pattaya United
0
Draws
2
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and BG Pathum United?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2022, when Pattaya United 0-3 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Pattaya United and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pattaya United at 73%, BG Pathum United at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pattaya United) and 46% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Pattaya United have failed to score in 27% of games; BG Pathum United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Pattaya United's games and 73% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Pattaya United's recent games and 46% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattaya United and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pattaya United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Pattaya United 0-3 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 0.95 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pattaya United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against BG Pathum United attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 28% | Draw 31% | BG Pathum United 40%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 38%, BG Pathum United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pattaya United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.