Pattani vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Rainbow Stadium, Pattani have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Pattani) versus 1.20 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Pattani's 25% rate and Sukhothai FC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Trading Patterns

Pattani in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 57% versus Sukhothai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 71% | Sukhothai FC 86%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 1.16 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.617 / defence 1.033 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Pattani's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Pattani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Pattani games / 37 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pattani 35% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sukhothai FC 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 25% | Sukhothai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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