Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pitchaya Stadium plays host to Nong Bua Pitchaya versus Pattaya United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 12 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattaya United have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pattaya United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Nong Bua Pitchaya. A 2.00 PPG lead over Pattaya United (3.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.57 xG and Pattaya United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.000 / defence 0.949 | Pattaya United attack 0.892 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.541. Data: 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 1 Pattaya United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 28%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Pattaya United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nong Bua Pitchaya as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.57 / Pattaya United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.000 / def 0.949 | Pattaya United attack 0.892 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Pattaya United xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 1 Pattaya United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 40% chance of winning, Pattaya United a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Pattaya United (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pattaya United's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pattaya United's attack (0.89x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.16
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.87
1.30
Pattaya United xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.30 for Pattaya United, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattaya United sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattaya United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Pattaya United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Pattaya United are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Pattaya United's attacking output running into Nong Bua Pitchaya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pattaya United in 100%.
Defensively: Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Pattaya United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Pattaya United have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Pattaya United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Pattaya United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
1
Pattaya United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United?
From 2 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Pattaya United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United last play each other?
They last met on 8 January 2022, when Pattaya United 2-2 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United?
Pattaya United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Pattaya United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Pattaya United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 100% of Pattaya United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Pattaya United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 100% of Pattaya United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Pattaya United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattaya United in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pattaya United defy the odds to beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pattaya United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.57 xG and Pattaya United 1.30 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Pattaya United attack 0.89 / defence 1.18, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 32% | Pattaya United 28%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pattaya United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 0%, Pattaya United 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Pattaya United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nong Bua Pitchaya managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pattaya United managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.