Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Nakhon Pathom welcome Port FC to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 August 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.43 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.118 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.145. Data: 0 Nakhon Pathom games / 30 Port FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 25% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 25% | Port FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.43 / Port FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.118 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Port FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 36% chance of winning, Port FC a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Port FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
36%
2.75
25%
3.96
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.90
1.47
Port FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.47 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Pre-Season
Port FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Port FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Pathom's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
2
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Port FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Port FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Nakhon Pathom and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom and Port FC finished level at 2-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.43 xG and Port FC 1.47 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 36% | Draw 25% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.