Muangthong United 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya make the trip to SCG Stadium to face Muangthong United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 5 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Muangthong United (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.75 conceded. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.25 for Muangthong United, 1.50 for Nong Bua Pitchaya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 75% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 75% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.01 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.234 / defence 1.260 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.793 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.326. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Muangthong United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Muangthong United games / 4 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 51% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 4.35. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Muangthong United 75% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 25%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: SCG Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 51% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Muangthong United 2.01 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.234 / def 1.260 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.793 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 5 October 2021 at SCG Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Muangthong United 1 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at SCG Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 51% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-D-W-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (1.23) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.79x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.95
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.33
1.33
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.33 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Muangthong United come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.50 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 25%.
Defensively: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Muangthong United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
4
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 75%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Muangthong United) and 25% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 25% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Muangthong United's recent games and 25% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United and Nong Bua Pitchaya finished level at 1-1 at SCG Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.01 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.33 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.23 / defence 1.26 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 51% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 75%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.25 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.