Lamphun Warrior 3-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 November 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sukhothai FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamphun Warrior 21% | Sukhothai FC 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamphun Warrior 21% | Sukhothai FC 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 0.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.563 / defence 1.463 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.821 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.144. Lamphun Warrior's attack strength of 0.563 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Lamphun Warrior games / 14 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 19% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Sukhothai FC 1.92. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 20% | Sukhothai FC 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 19% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Lamphun Warrior 0.72 / Sukhothai FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.563 / def 1.463 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.821 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sukhothai FC xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 19% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.56) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
19%
5.20
29%
3.48
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.09
1.37
Sukhothai FC xG
5.20
19%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
5%
20.53
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 16.9 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.37 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 4D 8L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.29 PPG overall record — Sukhothai FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.64 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Sukhothai FC's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 0.20 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 20%, Sukhothai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Lamphun Warrior and 0% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 40%; Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 60% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 0% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 3-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 0.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.56 / defence 1.46 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 19% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 52%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 21%, Sukhothai FC 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.