Lamphun Warrior 0-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 39%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at 700th Anniversary Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 3–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Port FC in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Port FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 56% | Port FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.51 xG and Port FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.125 / defence 1.309 | Port FC attack 0.875 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.182. Data: 39 Lamphun Warrior games / 39 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 39% | Draw 29% | Port FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Port FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 39% | Draw 29% | Port FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.51 / Port FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.125 / def 1.309 | Port FC attack 0.875 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Port FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 39% chance of winning, Port FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Record (6 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 2 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.12) and Port FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.44
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.86
1.35
Port FC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.97
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.35 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 10W 13D 16L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 18W 10D 11L from 39 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Port FC have gone 18W 10D 11L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.47 PPG; Port FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 58%, Port FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamphun Warrior) and 47% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Port FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 53% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 47% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Port FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Lamphun Warrior 0-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.51 xG and Port FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.12 / defence 1.31 against Port FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 39% | Draw 29% | Port FC 32%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 56%, Port FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.