Lamphun Warrior 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 30 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Port FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Port FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamphun Warrior at 1.50 PPG versus Port FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Port FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2025, ended Lamphun Warrior 1–2 Port FC — a Port FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 54% and Port FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 54% | Port FC 65%). Note also that Port FC surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.822 / defence 0.980 | Port FC attack 1.044 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.177. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 56 games and Port FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.13 | Draw 3.36 | Port FC 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 40% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.08 / Port FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.822 / def 0.980 | Port FC attack 1.044 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Port FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 27) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 32% chance of winning, Port FC a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.82) and Port FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 56 games and Port FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
32%
3.13
30%
3.36
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.28
1.20
Port FC xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.20 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 16D 21L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Port FC's form line: 27W 16D 11L from 54 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 6D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 10W 11D 6L from their last 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 69%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Port FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Port FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Port FC have gone 27W 16D 11L in their last 54 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.67 PPG; Port FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Port FC have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Port FC 2-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 59%, Port FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 59% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Port FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 70% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 59% of Port FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 93% of Port FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Port FC 3-2 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.08 xG and Port FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 32% | Draw 30% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Port FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.