Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to Mae Guang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Mae Guang Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamphun Warrior at 2.00 PPG versus Port FC's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Port FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Port FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 48% and Port FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Port FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.41 xG and Port FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.121 / defence 0.920 | Port FC attack 1.193 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.186. Port FC's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Lamphun Warrior games / 51 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 31% | Port FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Port FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 31% | Port FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.41 / Port FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.121 / def 0.920 | Port FC attack 1.193 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Port FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 37% chance of winning, Port FC a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 1 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.12) and Port FC's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.27
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.71
1.30
Port FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.30 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 17W 13D 20L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 26W 14D 10L from 50 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (13W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 9W 10D 6L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.08 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 13D 20L in their last 50 games (1.28 PPG), while Port FC have gone 26W 14D 10L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.80 PPG; Port FC away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 60%, Port FC at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamphun Warrior) and 56% (Port FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 72% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 56% of Port FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Port FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Port FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Lamphun Warrior and Port FC drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.41 xG and Port FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.12 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 31% | Port FC 32%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 48%, Port FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.