Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Kanchanaburi to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 February 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kanchanaburi stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lamphun Warrior at 1.20 PPG versus Kanchanaburi's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Kanchanaburi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Kanchanaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Kanchanaburi in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 68% and Kanchanaburi 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Kanchanaburi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.22 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.058 / defence 1.179 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.707 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.087. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Lamphun Warrior games / 19 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Kanchanaburi 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Kanchanaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.22 / Kanchanaburi 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.058 / def 1.179 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.707 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Kanchanaburi xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 9 February 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 67% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 0 | Kanchanaburi 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.06) and Kanchanaburi's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kanchanaburi's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.32
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.13
0.91
Kanchanaburi xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
11%
9.22
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
2%
65.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.91 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 3W 9D 7L from 19 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 8L across 19 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.95 PPG, Kanchanaburi on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 1W 6D 2L from 9 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 0W 3D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 9D 7L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 2W 9D 8L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
1
Draws
1
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Kanchanaburi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Kanchanaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi?
Kanchanaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 78%, Kanchanaburi at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Lamphun Warrior and 44% for Kanchanaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Kanchanaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 56% of Kanchanaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 44% of Kanchanaburi's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.22 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.91 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 63%, Kanchanaburi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.95 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.