Lamphun Warrior 2-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Chiangrai United to Mae Guang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Mae Guang Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Chiangrai United's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Chiangrai United and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 38% versus Chiangrai United 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 38% | Chiangrai United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / defence 1.118 | Chiangrai United attack 0.898 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.059. Chiangrai United's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Lamphun Warrior games / 34 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 36%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Chiangrai United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 50% | Chiangrai United 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.01 / Chiangrai United 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / def 1.118 | Chiangrai United attack 0.898 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Chiangrai United xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
33%
3.05
32%
3.16
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.08
1.06
Chiangrai United xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.06 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 9D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (15W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.47 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 15W 9D 10L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Chiangrai United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.35 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
2
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 47%, Chiangrai United 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lamphun Warrior) and 59% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 65% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 59% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.06 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Chiangrai United attack 0.90 / defence 0.74, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 36%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 38%, Chiangrai United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Lamphun Warrior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.