Khon Kaen United 1-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Khon Kaen United take on Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Khon Kaen United welcome Port FC to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United at Khon Kaen Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Khon Kaen United) versus 1.60 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Khon Kaen United, 2 for Port FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–4 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Port FC trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 46% versus Port FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 33% | Port FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.03 xG and Port FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.815 / defence 0.892 | Port FC attack 0.939 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.216. Data: 48 Khon Kaen United games / 48 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 33% | Draw 34% | Port FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Port FC 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 40% | Port FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 33% | Draw 34% | Port FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.03 / Port FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.815 / def 0.892 | Port FC attack 0.939 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Port FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Port FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 33% chance of winning, Port FC a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 1 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Port FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Port FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.90
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.05
1.02
Port FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.02 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 13W 16D 19L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 16L across 48 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.15 PPG, Port FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 8W 9D 6L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Port FC have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Port FC away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.43 PPG; Port FC away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Port FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 39%, Port FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Khon Kaen United) and 56% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 65% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 56% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Port FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Port FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khon Kaen United edge out Port FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Port FC 1-0 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.03 xG and Port FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Port FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 33% | Draw 34% | Port FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 33%, Port FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.15 PPG, Port FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.