Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Uthai Thani (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chonburi FC, 1.70 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Uthai Thani in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 58% and Uthai Thani 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 42% | Uthai Thani 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.67 xG and Uthai Thani 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.949 / defence 1.132 | Uthai Thani attack 0.965 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.088. Data: 19 Chonburi FC games / 49 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 27%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 3.70. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 67% | Uthai Thani 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Chonburi FC 1.67 / Uthai Thani 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.949 / def 1.132 | Uthai Thani attack 0.965 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Uthai Thani xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 48% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (3 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 2 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.95) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.96x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.06
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.19
Uthai Thani xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.19 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 6D 8L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.11 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chonburi FC's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.58 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Chonburi FC, 78% for Uthai Thani — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 67% (Uthai Thani).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chonburi FC's games and 78% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 67% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.67 xG and Uthai Thani 1.19 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Uthai Thani attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 27%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 42%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.11 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.