Chonburi FC 1-0 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Chonburi FC welcome Suphanburi to Chonburi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Chonburi Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 1W 4D 1L from 6 Thai League 1 matches — 1.17 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chonburi FC 1.33 PPG, Suphanburi 1.17 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Suphanburi in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 67% and Suphanburi 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chonburi FC 67% | Suphanburi 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.46 xG and Suphanburi 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.218 / defence 1.234 | Suphanburi attack 0.721 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.404. Data: 6 Chonburi FC games / 6 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 33% | Suphanburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Suphanburi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 100% | Suphanburi 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 33% | Suphanburi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Chonburi FC 1.46 / Suphanburi 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.218 / def 1.234 | Suphanburi attack 0.721 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Suphanburi xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi?
Chonburi FC 1 - 0 Suphanburi.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi part of?
Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 39% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chonburi FC and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Suphanburi in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-4D-1L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.22) and Suphanburi's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
39%
2.60
33%
3.04
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
Suphanburi xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
7%
15.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.25 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Suphanburi's form line: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.33 PPG, Suphanburi on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Suphanburi in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Suphanburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 1W 4D 1L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Suphanburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 1, Suphanburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2022, when Suphanburi 2-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 67%, Suphanburi at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chonburi FC and 67% for Suphanburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chonburi FC's games and 83% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chonburi FC's matches and 67% of Suphanburi's.
Do Chonburi FC and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Suphanburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Suphanburi 1-0 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.46 xG and Suphanburi 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suphanburi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Suphanburi attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 33% | Suphanburi 29%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 67%, Suphanburi 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Suphanburi's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.33 PPG, Suphanburi 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Suphanburi managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.