Chonburi FC 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at Chonburi UTA Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Chonburi FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Prachuap — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Prachuap have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Chonburi FC 1–3 Prachuap — a Prachuap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Prachuap in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 54% versus Prachuap 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 47% | Prachuap 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.12 xG and Prachuap 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.834 / defence 0.951 | Prachuap attack 0.823 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.164. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 57 games and Prachuap's last 57.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.54 | Draw 3.10 | Prachuap 3.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Chonburi FC 1.12 / Prachuap 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.834 / def 0.951 | Prachuap attack 0.823 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Prachuap xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Prachuap FAQs
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 39% chance of winning, Prachuap a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chonburi FC's last 57 games and Prachuap's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.10
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.91
Prachuap xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chonburi FC vs Prachuap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.91 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 12D 26L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Prachuap's form line: 16W 17D 24L from 57 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.21 PPG, Prachuap on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 3W 10D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.32 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 65%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
Chonburi FC (Home) vs Prachuap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chonburi FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Chonburi FC vs Prachuap Form FAQs
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 19W 12D 26L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Prachuap away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Prachuap have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Chonburi FC vs Prachuap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Chonburi FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 46%, Prachuap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chonburi FC) and 54% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Prachuap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Prachuap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chonburi FC and Prachuap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Chonburi FC's games and 64% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chonburi FC and Prachuap matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 54% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 71% of Prachuap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Chonburi FC and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.12 xG and Prachuap 0.91 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 47%, Prachuap 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.21 PPG, Prachuap 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.