Chonburi FC 1-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Chonburi FC welcome BG Pathum United to Chonburi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.92 xG and BG Pathum United 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | BG Pathum United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.507. Data: 0 Chonburi FC games / 0 BG Pathum United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 20% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 46%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | BG Pathum United 2.17. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 20% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Chonburi FC 0.92 / BG Pathum United 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | BG Pathum United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
BG Pathum United xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 20% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against BG Pathum United's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
20%
5.07
34%
2.96
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.47
BG Pathum United xG
5.07
20%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
22.12
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.47 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Pre-Season
BG Pathum United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when BG Pathum United won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC and BG Pathum United finished level at 1-1 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 0.92 xG and BG Pathum United 1.47 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against BG Pathum United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 20% | Draw 34% | BG Pathum United 46%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.