Chiangrai United 2-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to LEO Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at LEO Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Port FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangrai United lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Port FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 54% versus Port FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 48% | Port FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.43 xG and Port FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.130 / defence 0.961 | Port FC attack 1.089 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.136. Data: 54 Chiangrai United games / 54 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 28% | Port FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Port FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 80% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 28% | Port FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Chiangrai United 1.43 / Port FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.130 / def 0.961 | Port FC attack 1.089 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Port FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Port FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Chiangrai United 2 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Port FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 42% chance of winning, Port FC a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chiangrai United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 2 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.09x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.64
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.62
1.19
Port FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.19 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United come into this having played 54 games, going 22W 16D 16L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.44 PPG from 54 outings (21W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.44 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chiangrai United's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (6W 8D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 22W 16D 16L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Port FC have gone 21W 15D 18L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Port FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.58 PPG; Port FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Port FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 50%, Port FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Chiangrai United) and 58% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chiangrai United's games and 65% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 58% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Port FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Port FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chiangrai United 2-3 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.43 xG and Port FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Port FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 42% | Draw 28% | Port FC 31%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 48%, Port FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.52 PPG, Port FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.