Chiangrai United 0-4 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to LEO Chiangrai Stadium to face Chiangrai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 2D 3L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Port FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Port FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 50% versus Port FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 58% | Port FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.12 xG and Port FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.778 / defence 1.438 | Port FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.148. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Chiangrai United games / 12 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 27% | Draw 25% | Port FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.13. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 43% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 27% | Draw 25% | Port FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Chiangrai United 1.12 / Port FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.778 / def 1.438 | Port FC attack 0.940 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Port FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Port FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Port FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Chiangrai United 0 - 4 Port FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Port FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 27% chance of winning, Port FC a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chiangrai United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.94x) against Chiangrai United's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
27%
3.65
25%
3.96
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.67
1.55
Port FC xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
17.26
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.55 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 2D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.50 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chiangrai United's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Port FC have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 0.80 PPG; Port FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Port FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 14 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 20%, Port FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chiangrai United) and 60% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 80% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 60% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Port FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Port FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chiangrai United 0-4 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.12 xG and Port FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Port FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.78 / defence 1.44 against Port FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.40, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 27% | Draw 25% | Port FC 47%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 58%, Port FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.67 PPG, Port FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.