Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Chiangrai United (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Chiangrai United face Nong Bua Pitchaya.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Nong Bua Pitchaya have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chiangrai United are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Chiangrai United: 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Chiangrai United 2–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya — a Chiangrai United win.
The head-to-head data gives Chiangrai United an edge — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 30% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 41% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Nong Bua Pitchaya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.63 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.788 / defence 0.688 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.668 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.204. Chiangrai United's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.63. Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chiangrai United's projected output up. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating of 0.668 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.55. Chiangrai United have a tight defence (rating 0.688), which is pulling Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output down. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 57 games and Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 27.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 63% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.58 | Draw 4.05 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 8.40. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (63%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Nong Bua Pitchaya's lower xG of 0.55 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 20% (last 10 home games) | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 63% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Chiangrai United 1.63 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.788 / def 0.688 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.668 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
34%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya FAQs
What time does Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 4 April 2025 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chiangrai United 2 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 63% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chiangrai United's last 57 games and Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
63%
1.58
25%
4.05
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.18
0.55
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
36%
2.74
2%
42.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.55 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 2D 15L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.19 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chiangrai United's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across their last 13 home games, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.46 points per game from their last 13 away games (1W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.30 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 63%.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Chiangrai United (Home) vs Nong Bua Pitchaya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Form FAQs
What form are Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 10W 2D 15L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.77 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Chiangrai United
0
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chiangrai United have won 6, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2025: Chiangrai United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 23%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Chiangrai United) and 69% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 31% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 62% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 69% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Nong Bua Pitchaya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 69% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.63 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.55 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.79 / defence 0.69 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.67 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 63% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 41%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.