Chiangrai United 0-5 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chiangrai United face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Buriram United at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Buriram United have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Buriram United, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Chiangrai United.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Buriram United winning.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Buriram United in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 53% versus Buriram United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 47% | Buriram United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Buriram United 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.899 / defence 0.889 | Buriram United attack 1.379 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.221. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Chiangrai United games / 32 Buriram United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 28% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 44%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 50% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 28% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Chiangrai United 1.17 / Buriram United 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.899 / def 0.889 | Buriram United attack 1.379 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Buriram United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Buriram United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Chiangrai United 0 - 5 Buriram United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 28% chance of winning, Buriram United a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chiangrai United and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
Record (5 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Buriram United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.57
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.67
1.50
Buriram United xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.72
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.50 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 9W 10D 13L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United's form line: 22W 9D 1L from 32 games, 2.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangrai United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 10W 5D 1L from 16 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.44 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 22W 9D 1L in their last 32 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.44 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Buriram United in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2025, when Buriram United won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
7
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 0, Buriram United have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Buriram United 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 50%, Buriram United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chiangrai United) and 50% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Buriram United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 56% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 50% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Buriram United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 0-5 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.17 xG and Buriram United 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.50 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Buriram United attack 1.38 / defence 0.73, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 28% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 44%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 47%, Buriram United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Buriram United's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.