Chiangmai United 0-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangmai United vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangmai United and Prachuap meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Chiangmai United (all games): 1W 2D 4L across 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangmai United at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Prachuap have collected 0.86 PPG across 7 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.71 PPG for Chiangmai United against 0.86 for Prachuap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Prachuap in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Chiangmai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangmai United 57% and Prachuap 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 57% | Prachuap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 1.06 xG and Prachuap 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.740 / defence 1.267 | Prachuap attack 0.887 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.307. Chiangmai United's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing Chiangmai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Chiangmai United games / 7 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 25% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 45%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Prachuap 2.22. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 67% | Prachuap 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 25% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Chiangmai United 1.06 / Prachuap 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.740 / def 1.267 | Prachuap attack 0.887 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Prachuap xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Prachuap kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Prachuap?
Chiangmai United 0 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Prachuap part of?
Chiangmai United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 25% chance of winning, Prachuap a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chiangmai United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangmai United and Prachuap in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chiangmai United's attack at 0.74x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.89x) against Chiangmai United's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
25%
3.97
30%
3.31
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.53
1.47
Prachuap xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
6%
17.24
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.47 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Chiangmai United have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Chiangmai United against 0.86 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangmai United have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.86 PPG overall record — Prachuap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangmai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangmai United at home or Prachuap away?
Prachuap's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangmai United at home: 0.33 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
0
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Prachuap?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Prachuap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2022, when Prachuap 2-1 Chiangmai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangmai United and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Chiangmai United, 100% for Prachuap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Chiangmai United and 100% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangmai United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chiangmai United's games and 100% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangmai United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Chiangmai United's matches and 100% of Prachuap's.
Do Chiangmai United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Chiangmai United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chiangmai United 0-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 1.06 xG and Prachuap 1.47 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangmai United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.74 / defence 1.27 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 1.37, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 25% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 45%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 57%, Prachuap 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Prachuap's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangmai United 0.71 PPG, Prachuap 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.