Buriram United 0-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 86% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Buriram United welcome Port FC to Chang Arena in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Buriram United stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Buriram United have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Port FC — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Port FC away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Buriram United, 2 for Port FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Sep 2024, ended Buriram United 0–0 Port FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 49% and Port FC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Buriram United 63% | Port FC 67%). Note also that Port FC surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Buriram United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 3.33 xG and Port FC 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.963 / defence 0.569 | Port FC attack 1.035 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.191. Buriram United carry an above-average attack rating of 1.963 — their 3.33 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United have a tight defence (rating 0.569), which is pulling Port FC's projected output down. Data: built from Buriram United's last 50 games and Port FC's last 49.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 86% | Draw 10% | Port FC 4%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.16 | Draw 9.91 | Port FC 25.25. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (86%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 86% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Buriram United's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Buriram United 20% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 86% | Draw 10% | Port FC 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Buriram United 3.33 / Port FC 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.963 / def 0.569 | Port FC attack 1.035 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.33
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Port FC xG
49%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Buriram United vs Port FC FAQs
What time does Buriram United vs Port FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Buriram United 0 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Port FC part of?
Buriram United vs Port FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 86% chance of winning, Port FC a 4% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Buriram United and Port FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Buriram United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.96) and Port FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 3.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Buriram United's last 50 games and Port FC's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 4-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
86%
1.16
10%
9.91
4%
25.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
4 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.33
Buriram United xG
Total xG
4.03
0.70
Port FC xG
1.16
86%
Home win
9.91
10%
Draw
25.25
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
4%
27.99
Win to Nil
43%
2.35
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Buriram United vs Port FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.33 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.70 for Port FC, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.43 PPG on a 36W 11D 2L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Port FC's form line: 24W 15D 10L from 49 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 2.58 PPG from their last 24 home games (19W 5D 0L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 8W 11D 5L from their last 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 2.82 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.16 scored and 1.27 conceded. Port FC's attacking output running into Buriram United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 71%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
Buriram United (Home) vs Port FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Buriram United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Buriram United vs Port FC Form FAQs
What form are Buriram United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 36W 11D 2L in their last 49 games (2.43 PPG), while Port FC have gone 24W 15D 10L in their last 49 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Port FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.58 PPG; Port FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Port FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won Port FC 4-1 Buriram United.
Buriram United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Buriram United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Buriram United vs Port FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Port FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Buriram United have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Port FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 42%, Port FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Buriram United and 62% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Buriram United vs Port FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Buriram United and Port FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Buriram United's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Buriram United and Port FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Buriram United's matches and 62% of Port FC's.
Do Buriram United and Port FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Buriram United's recent matches and 92% of Port FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Buriram United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Buriram United 0-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.33 xG and Port FC 0.70 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Buriram United fell 3.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.96 / defence 0.57 against Port FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 86% | Draw 10% | Port FC 4%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 86%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 4% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 63%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.78. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.