Buriram United 1-2 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Buriram United at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host BG Pathum United at Khao Kradong Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United at Khao Kradong Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Khao Kradong Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
BG Pathum United — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Buriram United 2.50 PPG, BG Pathum United 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Buriram United, 2 for BG Pathum United and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Buriram United in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 49% versus BG Pathum United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 63% | BG Pathum United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.39 xG and BG Pathum United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.654 / defence 0.656 | BG Pathum United attack 1.077 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.267. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.654 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.656 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Buriram United games / 57 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 70% | Draw 18% | BG Pathum United 12%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | BG Pathum United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 20% | BG Pathum United 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Khao Kradong Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 70% | Draw 18% | BG Pathum United 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Buriram United 2.39 / BG Pathum United 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.654 / def 0.656 | BG Pathum United attack 1.077 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.90
BG Pathum United xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Buriram United vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Khao Kradong Stadium.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Buriram United 1 - 2 BG Pathum United.
Where is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Khao Kradong Stadium.
What competition is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United part of?
Buriram United vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 70% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Buriram United and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and BG Pathum United?
Record (7 meetings): Buriram United 2W | Draws 3 | BG Pathum United 2W.
What form are Buriram United and BG Pathum United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.65x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.60
12%
8.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.28
0.90
BG Pathum United xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
8.33
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
9%
10.89
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
90.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Buriram United and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.90 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs BG Pathum United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Buriram United's recent record stands at 41W 13D 3L from 57 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 29W 16D 12L across 57 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over BG Pathum United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 22W 5D 1L from 28 games — 2.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 11W 10D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Buriram United are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.75 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United in 61%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 41W 13D 3L in their last 57 games (2.39 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 29W 16D 12L in their last 57 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or BG Pathum United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.54 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Buriram United or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and BG Pathum United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Buriram United
4
Draws
3
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-3 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 39%, BG Pathum United 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Buriram United) and 50% (BG Pathum United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Buriram United's recent matches and 68% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Buriram United's matches and 50% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Buriram United and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BG Pathum United defy the odds to beat Buriram United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Buriram United 1-2 at Khao Kradong Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.39 xG and BG Pathum United 0.90 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.65 / defence 0.66 against BG Pathum United attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 70% | Draw 18% | BG Pathum United 12%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a BG Pathum United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 63%, BG Pathum United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.81. Form was overturned, with BG Pathum United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.