BG Pathum United 2-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Ratchaburi travel to LEO Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 September 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 3.00 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of BG Pathum United's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 0.95 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Ratchaburi attack 0.912 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.514. Data: 1 BG Pathum United games / 1 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 19% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 49%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | Ratchaburi 2.04. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 19% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG BG Pathum United 0.95 / Ratchaburi 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Ratchaburi attack 0.912 / def 1.002 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United 2 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 19% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.98) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
19%
5.23
32%
3.10
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.54
1.59
Ratchaburi xG
5.23
19%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
4%
25.61
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.59 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against BG Pathum United.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Ratchaburi's attacking output running into BG Pathum United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 0%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 0% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 0% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Ratchaburi 2-0 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 0.95 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 19% | Draw 32% | Ratchaburi 49%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a BG Pathum United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 0%, Ratchaburi 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with BG Pathum United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.