BG Pathum United 0-3 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Police Tero make the trip to LEO Stadium to face BG Pathum United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
BG Pathum United (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. BG Pathum United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BG Pathum United's home record at LEO Stadium: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Police Tero's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Police Tero have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward BG Pathum United. A 0.92 PPG lead over Police Tero (1.75 vs 0.83) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Police Tero — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 50% versus Police Tero 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (BG Pathum United 25% | Police Tero 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.46 xG and Police Tero 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.960 / defence 1.086 | Police Tero attack 0.792 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.332. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 BG Pathum United games / 6 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 41% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 26%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Police Tero 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: BG Pathum United 33% | Police Tero 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 41% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG BG Pathum United 1.46 / Police Tero 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.960 / def 1.086 | Police Tero attack 0.792 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Police Tero xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Police Tero kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Police Tero?
BG Pathum United 0 - 3 Police Tero.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Police Tero part of?
BG Pathum United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 41% chance of winning, Police Tero a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both BG Pathum United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Police Tero in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L. Police Tero (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (0.96) and Police Tero's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.79x) against BG Pathum United's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 4/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.00
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.61
1.15
Police Tero xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.15 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BG Pathum United's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for BG Pathum United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Police Tero heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Police Tero won 0-3 on 9 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when BG Pathum United 4-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Police Tero?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 50%, Police Tero 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for BG Pathum United and 0% for Police Tero.
On the defensive side: Police Tero in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 25% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 0% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Police Tero tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Police Tero run riot with a 0-3 hammering of BG Pathum United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat BG Pathum United 0-3 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.46 xG and Police Tero 1.15 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Police Tero outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Police Tero attack 0.79 / defence 1.36, drawn from 4/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 41% | Draw 33% | Police Tero 26%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 25%, Police Tero 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Police Tero's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Police Tero winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Police Tero scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.