Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC meet at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Rayong FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ayutthaya FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ayutthaya FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 60% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 49% | Rayong FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.76 xG and Rayong FC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.861 / defence 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 1.087 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ayutthaya FC games / 37 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Rayong FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ayutthaya FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 41% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.76 / Rayong FC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.861 / def 1.064 | Rayong FC attack 1.087 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Rayong FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 41% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (1.09x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
41%
2.46
23%
4.40
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
3.42
1.66
Rayong FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.66 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ayutthaya FC come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 9D 16L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rayong FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (11W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Ayutthaya FC against 1.22 for Rayong FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ayutthaya FC's home form reads 3W 4D 11L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.72 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Rayong FC have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.72 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
1
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Rayong FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-0 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ayutthaya FC, 83% for Rayong FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ayutthaya FC) and 67% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 83% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 67% of Rayong FC's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.